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2009 Kentucky Derby Betting Guide

Posted on May 1, 2009

Hot news about kentucky derby 2009 field. 2009 Kentucky Derby Betting Guide

It’s hard to believe the Kentucky Derby is upon us already, but this Saturday marks the 135th run for the roses.

For an idea of how good our picks are, here’s what we said about Big Brown last year:

Brien: Looks good but I hate to be the favorite
Russell: Not worth the money, in my opinion
J-Red: This horse is the class of the race, but unfortunately he’s hanging out in the 20th spot

So we liked him, but we didn’t quite see the greatness (and certainly didn’t make any money off him [J-Red's Note: Until Preakness that is. I took a picture of the pile of cash.]). On to this year’s picks:

Brien

The rule, as always, is to look for distance.

My thoughts on the field:

1-West Side Bernie – Decent performances in grades stakes, but seems to end up with a lot of really bad trips. Bad news in a 20 horse field. No

2-Musket Man – Five wins in six lifetime starts, but speed figures aren’t the best. Maybe

3-Mr. Hot Stuff – Broke his maiden in Feb, never run off synthetic before. No

4-Advice – Looks like a closer, but only 1 good race to show for it. No

5-Hold Me Back – Good results from bad positions. Maybe

6-Fresian Fire – Three very impressive runs this year, but hasn’t run 9f. Maybe

7-Papa Clem – Makes the money against good competition. Maybe

8-Mine That Bird – No business being here. No

9-Join in the Dance – Ditto. Looked tired at a mile and a sixteenth. No

10-Regal Ransom – Long ride from the Middle East, speed doesn’t look that great. No

11-Chocolate Candy – Against the best competition isn’t up for the challenge. No

12-General Quarters – Two good races aren’t enough to make up for a new jockey. No

13-I Want Revenge – Riding a huge hot streak coming in. Yes

14-Atomic Rain – Weakened at 1 1/8 in the Wood against Derby competition. No

15-Dunkirk – One amazing place in the Florida Derby isn’t enough. No

16-Pioneer of the Nile – No runs on natural dirt. Good results, bad speed figures. Maybe

17-Summer Bird – Outclassed. No

18-Nowhere to Hide – Not sure what Zito’s thinking here. No

19-Desert Party – I hate handicapping the foreign horses. Maybe

20-Flying Private – Nothing there. No

Here’s what we’re left with:

Yes: I Want Revenge
Maybe: Musket Man, Hold Me Back, Fresian Fire, Papa Clem, Pioneer of the Nile, Desert Party

That’s too many horses to bet, so let’s look for value in the morning lines. Unfortunately, I Want Revenge is the 3-1 favorite in a 20 horse field. Musket Man is 20-1, Hold Me Back is 15-1, Fresian Fire is 5-1, Papa Clem is 20-1, Pioneer of the Nile is 4-1, and Desert Party is 15-1
For me, I Want Revenge is the clear favorite, so let’s put $5 to win on him. For the rest, we’ll take a $2 box exacta on the long shots – Musket Man, Hold Me Back, Papa Clem, and Desert Party. That’s a $24 bet. To reach an even $30, we’ll take a lottery-ticket style $1 trifecta on I Want Revenge, Fresian Fire, and Papa Clem.

Jeremy

Capitals in 6.

J-Red

I have broken down the horses I believe to be contenders into A, B & C groups. Nine horses, including 3-Mr. Hot Stuff, 4-Advice, 8-Mine that Bird, 9-Join in the Dance, 10-Regal Ransom, 14-Atomic Rain, 17-Summer Bird, 18-Nowhere to Hide and 20-Flying Private I felt did not warrant any consideration except as pace factors.

A-Team
6-Friesan Fire. I have a thing for steadily climbing Beyers in young horses approaching the Derby. I like it even more when the distance has increased in the same fashion. Friesan Fire meets both those requirements, keeps the jockey, and took a little break. The break is my primary concern, and the only thing keeping me from making him my clear value favorite.

13-I Want Revenge. This horse is the class of the race and has shown that the ability carries over to dirt after a career on synthetic. The distance training is appropriate and the Churchill workouts are reassuring. The jockey is consistent. Unfortunately, bettors will identify him too.

B-Team
1-West Side Bernie. Not consistent enough to put on top, but with a clean rail trip could be a factor.

2-Musket Man. The Beyers are not inspiring, but it’s a dirt horse at a great price and trained for the distance. Not the class of the race, but in a good post and well positioned to possibly upset.

7-Papa Clem. This is my B+/A- horse. Everything points to him rounding into form and the value looks fantastic. I am having a hard time talking myself out of taking a flyer.

11-Chocolate Candy. Beyers increase every time out, as does the distance, but the horse has enver raced on dirt. Churchill works are good, but traffic may pinch off the horses shot considering NO early speed. Still, a definite contender for the board.

12-General Quarters. This is the most erratic horse of those capable of posting a 100+ Beyer. First time with Leparoux on board as well. Not inspiring, but dangerous.

15-Dunkirk. Thanks Pletcher, you asshat. After three races, this could be a superhorse or he could throw Prado in the gate. No idea what to expect, so he clogs up the tickets.

16-Pioneer of the Nile. This may well be the second favorite on Saturday, but I am concerned by the all-synthetic career followed by poor Churchill works. Add in the 16th spot and I’m not feeling it.

C-Team
5-Hold Me Back. Strong closer with one outing on dirt that was unimpressive. Tends to run wide, which would be fatal in a 20-horse field. In a different race, maybe. Here, only on the deepest tickets.

19-Desert Party. Not way out in the auxiliary after making the trip over the pond. I really just write off the UAE horses based on history.

I’ll update this with my precise plays tonight (Friday night), but I wanted to get my thoughts in.

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